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The problem was that you could only play the high-def DVDR disc on the Mac system since there were no MPEG-4 or H.264 players available. But with the number of chip people making combination MPEG-2/MPEG-4 - H.264 chips it shouldn't be too difficult to produce a combination player that reads the discs as well as a DVD recorder that writes huge volumes to today's DVD media ?should it?
"I'm mad as Hell, and I'm not going to take it anymore!" -- Howard Beale in Network
There have been a number of recent research reports coming to the conclusion that we aren't interested in upgrading to the next generation of DVD burners and media. But then all too often we don't know what we want.
We didn't know we wanted:
Stereo instead of mono CDs instead of LPs or cassettes
Stereo TV or HDTV DVD instead of VHS Digital or MP3 Audio
Digital instead of Analog photos, film
We did want:
Pictures on radio
Color TV to replace B&W
We got:
CD and DVD-Video
Personalized, Customized Audio,
Video CD and DVD Photos
DVD quality TV, time-shifting, archiving, playback
But deep in the back of our minds, we know we don't want someone telling us that the product we just bought is going to be replaced by something yet to be defined, that is marginally better than the product we have today and at a significantly higher cost.
The fact is that the total HDTV set universe is still below 15 million. Only a small percentage of these sets actually receive over-the-air HD broadcasts. According to CEA president Gary Shapiro that in 2004 only 1.5 million integrated TVs and 475,000 set-top DTT (Digital Television Tuner) receivers were sold to dealers. These include all forms of HD (cable, satellite and DTT). And unless you're really into sports and watch ESPN regularly the chances that the stuff you watch on your HDTV is really HD is pretty slim.
More importantly, what if you have a decent-sized library of DVD movies that you've bought or are one of those folks who use the NetFlix "Burn and Return" program? Even if you go to a blue recorder/reader and HDTV set you are still going to be watching DVD (MPEG-2) quality. And will Hollywood upgrade their vast DVD library to High Def or continue to encourage you to buy from the current catalog?
The differences between High Def and DVD aren't as dramatic as they were between DVD and VHS. So the big question will be how much will people be willing to pay for that slight improvement or will there be an option.
Perhaps it might be better to have a low-cost burner and/or recorder that writes your high-def content to your present sub-$1 disc? Say perhaps writing in MPEG-4/H.264? You know, one that could also write your regular MPEG-2 content to the disc you've just begun using regularly?
We expect to see a few of these hit the market this next year. In fact you may see them at next January?s CES (2006) show.
Prices? Heck we don't know. But logic says they shouldn't be too much more expensive than today's DVD burners because the only change is in the combination codec and the unique selling proposition.
Great, but you are probably worried that the discs won't play in anything but your PC --like today's Mac G5? No guarantee, but if we were the manufacturers we'd offer stand-alone MPEG-2/-4/H.264 players for perhaps $50. Or perhaps a starter bundle?you know, burner and player for say $200 - $250. Both have got to be less expensive than the blue technology units will be whenever they hit the stores. In fact, they probably won't reach that price point until 2007. Of course the blue media will have to come down in price a long way and that will take even longer.
This type of combination MPEG-2 and H.264 would make all of the news releases crowing about how "mine is better than yours" a moot point. In the blink of an eye consumers could take back control of their choice as to what they want to buy. After all, you've already lived through the DVD+/- war of words and the upgrade path should be relatively economical, relatively painless.
Of course this doesn't take into consideration the DRM issues that Hollywood has and which are valid if that's your business. You can be certain they will turn their attention to the issue once people start buying the high def burners in quantity. As the Wizard said, "Do not arouse the wrath of the great and powerful Oz."
But this might -- just might -- be a simple solution that the next-generation royalty owners overlooked.
Imagine if Apple once again showed the way and QuickTime became the player of choice. Jobs just might be onto something.
Undercover author Miles Weston has spent more than 30 years in the storage, software and video industry, indulging in, among other things, marketing activities in promoting PC, CE, communications, content technology and their applications . Contact Miles through his editor by clicking here.Related Sites: Creative Mac , Digital Producer , Digital Post Production , DVD Creation , Oceania , CEN - Consumer Electronics Net , CEN - DVD , CEN - Peripherals , Storage
Related Newsletter: DMN Newsletter , Timeline Newsletter , Digital Media Net , DVD Viewpoint , BN - HD Weekly , DMNForums , CEN - Gadgets Newsletter
Source:Digital Media Online.
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